This section regroups :

• A detailled overview of the indicators related to the Monetary policy content of ECB introductory statements and the Economic Outlook content.
• A download section where you can obtain, in a csv format, all indicators values and detailed probabilities.

Monetary Policy Index

The graph below plots the three components assessing the monetary policy content of an ECB introductory statement. They represent the inclination of the statement toward hawkish (i.e. "we decided to increase the key ECB interest rates", 05/10/2006), neutral (i.e. "the current rates remain appropriate", 05/11/2009) or dovish (i.e. "the Governing Council decided to reduce the key ECB interest rates by a further 75 basis points." 04/12/2008) policies. A Monetary Policy Dovish score of 1 implies that all sentences related to the monetary policy in the statement are dovish.

Monetary Policy Indicator : details

You can zoom out by double cliking on the graph.

Economic Outlook Index

The graph below plots the three components assessing the economic outlook content of an ECB introductory statement. They represent the inclination of the statement toward a positive ("Domestic demand in the euro area is expected to maintain its relatively strong momentum", 07/12/2006), a neutral ("The Governing Council continues to view the risks to this outlook as broadly balanced",03/12/2009) or a negative ("[...] the intensification and broadening of the financial market turmoil is likely to dampen global and euro area demand [...].", 06/11/2008) economic outlook. An Economic Outlook Positive score of 1 implies that all sentences related to the economic outlook in the statement are positive.

Economic Outlook Indicator : details

You can zoom out by double cliking on the graph.

Download

The csv document includes, for the period between 2006 and June 2019, from the first to the last column :

• the date of the introductory statement
• the monetary policy and the economic outlook indicators displayed here.
• the detailled probailities of the Monetary Policy Indicator : Restrictive, Neutral and Accomodative.
• the detailled probailities of the Monetary Policy Indicator : Positive, Neutral and Negative.
• two alternative measures for the content of ECB introductory statements (see the research article for more details).

Latest database : Available here
How to cite : Picault M., Renault T. (2017), Words are not all created equals : a new measure of ECB communication, Journal of International Money and Finance, 79, 136-156.

Database from 2006 to 2014 used for the Journal of International Money & Finance : Available here

You will also find here the Media Sentiment Index (MSI) from our working paper "Media sentiment on monetary policy: determinants and relevance for inflation expectations" written by Matthieu Picault, Julien Pinter and Thomas Renault.

© CBCI 2019